Misplaced confidence, I surmiseFrom the Toronto Globe and Mail:
More than half of the 218,000 new drivers in the province [ed. Ontario] take the voluntary Beginner Driver Education program every year.
The program, introduced in 1994 as part of the province's graduated licensing system, allows students to take their road test four months earlier after receiving a learner's permit.
But 6.8 per cent of these students were involved in collisions in 2005, compared with 4.2 per cent who had not taken the course, the report says.
Not quite the Peltzman effect, in that the program is not really a regulation, but another case where behavioral changes probably not considered in the policy analysis can produce unintended consequences.
Labels: overconfidence Peltzman effect